Synapse Market Insight

US tech stocks are facing simultaneous pressure from four fronts, sparking market concerns that the AI boom may be a bubble: 1. AI Bubble Breadth: The downturn has expanded across all seven segments of the AI supply chain, with nearly half of the stocks falling by more than 40%. 2. Technicals: The Nasdaq 100 has broken below its 200-day EMA and declined roughly 10% from its peak. 3. Cash Flow: Big Tech's AI Capex has doubled, exceeding operating cash flow and turning Free Cash Flow (FCF) negative. Consequently, companies have slashed share buybacks by 83%, eliminating a key driver of EPS growth. 4. Credit: Credit Default Swaps (CDS) for AI stocks have widened to their highest level since 2021, and credit markets typically serve as an early warning signal for equities.

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